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美股下跌不會隨着今年結束止步!大摩、高盛等衆多機構警告下行風險
uSMART盈立智投 12-22 10:00

華爾街頂尖策略師預計,明年上半年美股還會跌,因爲企業盈利將受經濟疲軟和高通脹打擊,而且主要央行會保持堅定的鷹派立場。假如美聯儲停止加息,下半年美股將迎來複蘇,但可能只是溫和的反彈。

主要美國股指今年全年累計下跌的勢頭已無可挽回,但美股的跌勢不會隨着今年的結束畫上句號,多家機構警告投資者,要爲明年的更多痛苦做準備。

摩根士丹利、高盛等機構的華爾街頂尖策略師預計,明年上半年美股還會下跌,因爲企業盈利將受到經濟增長更疲軟和通脹居高不下的打擊,而且主要央行會保持堅定的鷹派立場。假如美聯儲停止加息,下半年美股將迎來複蘇,但可能只是溫和的反彈,略高於相比今年末的水平。

媒體指出,美股很少出現連年下跌,自1928年以來,標普500指數僅出現過四次連續兩年下跌:上世紀三十年代大蕭條期間、第二次世界大戰、上世紀70年代的石油危機和本世紀初互聯網泡沫的破滅。因此在今年一年下跌後,美股明年錄得年度累跌的可能性很小。不過,華爾街的策略師普遍認爲,股市還沒有反映出總體悲觀的經濟前景。

上月末,高盛策略師Christian Mueller Glissmann團隊在報告中指出,他們的模型顯示,未來12個月美國經濟增長放緩的可能性爲39%,但風險資產的定價只有11%,這增加了明年出現衰退恐慌的風險。報告寫道:

在增長疲軟和波動加劇的情況下,再加上高估值,股票回撤風險較高。標普500指數的遠期市盈率是17.5倍,高於20年平均值15.7倍。

上週華爾街見聞文章提到,摩根士丹利的首席策略分析師Michael Wilson和高盛策略師David Kostin的新近報告都認爲,由於利潤率面臨壓力,明年美國上市公司的盈利收縮幅度可能超過預期,這意味着美股明年依然面臨重重壓力。換言之,盈利下滑是他們看空美股的主要原因。

本週一,在《機構投資者》10月公佈的調查中排名最佳策略師第一位的Michael Wilson又發報告稱,盈利衰退本身可能與2008到2009年的情況相似,這可能引發美股創新低,“比大多數投資者預期的要糟糕得多”。他還警告,和2008年相比,這一次面臨盈利衰退時,美聯儲可能受到更大的束縛,只能坐視不管。

Wilson預計,明年一季度,標普500的跌幅將高達21%,此後的反彈將幫助標普到明年底收於3900點左右,較本週一收盤價回漲約2%。

媒體新近調查顯示,22位策略師預計的明年標普500指數平均目標點位爲4078點,相當於較目前水平回漲約7%。其中最樂觀的預期是回漲24%,最悲觀的預測是下跌11%。對於歐股,14位策略師預計的歐洲斯託克600指數平均漲幅約爲5%。

美國銀行的一項調查還顯示,基金經理預計明年的企業盈利前景將惡化,因此他們對債券的前景比股票更爲樂觀。他們的股票與固定收益持倉之比處於2009年以來最低水平。

相比發達市場,摩根士丹利的Jonathan Garner等策略師更看好新興市場,仍然認爲應增持新興市場的股票,因爲對新興市場開始步入新的牛市週期更有信心。野村的團隊則認爲,西方的經濟衰退將使亞洲表現出色,因爲亞洲的股票估值較低,基本面前景較好。

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