亞洲股市、黃金迎來“聖誕老人式”小幅反彈
亞洲股市本週三實現小幅上漲,就連日經指數也擺脫了兩個月低點。大摩資本國際除日本外最廣泛的亞太股指上漲0.4%,澳大利亞黃金礦業公司領漲標普/ASX 200指數上上漲1.3%。
本週二,日本央行擴大了10年期政府債券收益率的交易區間,從零附近的25個基點擴大到50個基點,並引發日元大幅升值,日本股市和全球債券都出現拋售。今年大部分時間,由於日本國債收益率較低,日元一直在下跌。
美元由此下跌,令現貨黃金價格觸及六個月高點,報價爲每盎司1816美元。而金礦商也一路高歌,Newcrest在澳洲股市上漲6%,全球礦業巨頭必和必拓和力拓上漲2%。
Argonaut Securities駐珀斯的交易員Damian Rooney表示:“基調不錯,我們正在經歷聖誕老人式的小幅反彈(市場接近年底時12月下旬的典型漲勢)”。日元基本守住了本週二以來的大幅漲幅,交易員正在爲美元的進一步下跌做準備。
套利交易
債券市場繼續承壓,因爲最後一家控制債券市場的大國央行開始放鬆對收益率的鐵腕控制。不僅如此,投資者擔心海外市場上追求收益的日本大投資者將不得不拋售部分"利差"交易,以彌補日元升值和日本債券的損失,這也推動了市場,澳元債券遭到大量拋售,新加坡元等亞洲貨幣也處於被動地位。
瑞穗分析師認爲:“市場似乎越來越擔心因平倉而導致的無心‘避險’,以及風險資產的連鎖反應”。另一位分析師表示,股市的平靜可能不會持續,年底交投清淡時,市場可能變得動盪。“我們的股票交易員警告稱,最被低估的市場風險大致在於,後疫情時代的結構性通脹底部將穩定在多高的水平”。
分析師在一份報告中指出:“我們知道美聯儲堅決致力於讓通脹率降至2%並保持在這一水平,這意味着可能需要製造比目前市場折價更大的痛苦,才能達到其目標。”
基準10年期美國國債收益率上升4個基點至3.722%,爲三週以來的高點。日本10年期國債收益率上升5.5個基點至0.45%,接近日本央行設定的0.5%上限。
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