高盛:日本央行下一步可能取消負利率
日本央行修改收益率波動區間後,華爾街開始預期更大的轉向。
高盛日本首席經濟學家馬場直彥(Naohiko Baba)在今日給客戶的一份報告中指出,隨着日本央行開始了第一步行動,接下來該行可能會放棄負利率政策,以加強對收益率曲線控制的可持續性:
日本央行更加強調加強日本國債市場功能的必要性,這表明它放棄負利率政策的可能性加大。
儘管在宣佈調整收益率目標區間後,日本央行行長黑田東彥反覆表示這一轉變並非加息,只是增強債券市場的功能。
瑞銀證券首席日本經濟學家、前日本央行官員足立正道(Masamichi Adachi)認爲,無論日本央行怎麼稱呼它,“這都是朝着退出邁出的一步”:
這爲2023年新行長上任後加息打開了大門。
衝擊下一站:全球市場
對於日本經濟乃至全球經濟而言,日本央行的此次行動可能只是一個開始。
事實上,在負利率時代結束之前,全球負收益率時代已經臨近尾聲。
日本債券交易公司的數據顯示,週三,日本兩年期國債收益率上升兩個基點至0.010%,是2015年以來首次升至零以上。

債券收益率上升將意味着日本政府債券(包括日本央行持有的債券)的未實現虧損。持續的政策變化也可能打擊日本股市。
對世界其他地區來說,更大的擔憂是,它可能會切斷全球債券收益率的最後一根紐帶,引發美元資產拋售,買入日元。
如果持續的緊縮導致銀行和養老基金等日本投資者拋售包括全球股票在內的海外投資,這甚至可能導致包括新興市場資產在內的資產受到影響。
目前,日本投資者在海外股票和債券上的投資超過3萬億美元,其中一半以上存放在美國。彭博的數據顯示,荷蘭、澳大利亞和法國等其他國家也很容易受到日本資金迴流的影響。
Asymmetric Advisors Pte策略師Amir Anvarzadeh在週二日本央行會議前表示:
允許利率上升可能會導致日本海外資金如海嘯般涌入國內。
這將是重大的“重置”舉措。
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