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瑞銀料明年中國經濟增長回升至約5% 市場或繼續波動
阿思達克 12-20 12:33
瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監辦公室發表報告,指近期出台的一系列政策支持,減低中國經濟的尾部風險,並應有助於明年緩解不利因素。此支持了該行的觀點,即GDP增長在今年回穩於3%附近之後,將在明年回升至5%左右。 然而,瑞銀認為市場可能會繼續波動,方向則取決於新冠疫情的發展、對房地產市場的支持以及中概股審計進展。匯率方面,儘管人民幣中期前景回穩,但美元兌人民幣短期內可能會重新測試7.3關卡。 另外,該行相信中國將在明年第三季實質性重新開放,即永久取消封控措施和國內出行限制,認為中國政府在11月採取的優化疫情防控措施清楚地表明,結束動態清零的準備工作已經展開,預期可能需要三至六個月完成。
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