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教育板塊逆市領漲,思考樂教育三日暴漲 154%,能否成為第二個新東方?

今年以來,教育板塊多次表現活躍,在政策底疊加疫情底的背景下,港A股今日再次迎來大反彈,中小型教育股也紛紛接力暴漲起來

港股教育股中,思考樂漲超12%,光大教育證超11%,立德教育、香港教育國際漲超8%,大山教育、新高教、新東方等跟漲。其中,思考樂教育最近3個交易日最大累漲幅度達211%。 

A股教育股中,學大教育、昂立教育漲停,豆神教育漲超6%,全通教育、凱文教育、果新文化等跟漲。

教育股大漲一方面是由於中概股審計有重大進展,另一方面很多在線教育轉型直播帶貨取得良好成效的原因。昨晚有看到外媒一則消息稱,中國準備調整教育和互聯網的政策。

另外,“雙減”後,多家教培企業在原有業務收縮的情況下,不斷忙着轉型新業務。就直播業務而言,新東方推出了東方甄選,新東方在線在抖音高調成功轉型後,股價亦大漲,該模式亦引起市場的關注。從月K走勢不得不為“新東方精神”點贊,無論怎樣的絕境,總有不折不撓的勇氣存在。

對於多數國人而言,俞敏洪是被時代創造且讓人耳熟能詳的企業家,他和他的新東方,連同一起創造的留學熱潮也讓人記憶深刻。

有了新東方直播帶貨的成功經驗,思考樂教育也開始轉型直播帶貨,好未來推出了學家優品,高途推出了高途好物等,紛紛殺入直播電商領域。

而思考樂教育也開啟抖音本地生活服務直播,消息刺激,股價13日飆升100%,後一天股價繼續飆升逾30%,令股價三天曾翻三倍,近5個交易日累計漲154.5%,今日漲逾19%。

與此同時,宏觀層面,二十大強調就業優先與科教興國戰略,就業和科教備受國家重視。

華西證券分析稱,從高教板塊來看,此前市場主要擔心政策的不確定性,如選營選非推進緩慢、以及殺估值進一步影響行業併購預期。(1)9月以來,教育部先後公示了批准湖南及貴州、河北及山東4所獨立院校的舉辦者變更;二十大報吿的表述中,職業教育不僅是產教融合的落地手段、也是共同富裕的題中之義。(2)在今年就業壓力較大的背景下,高教學額再次迎來較快增長、特別是專升本學額中教控股9月新增報名人數增長48% (普本/專升本/專科分別增長37%/60%/23%,剔除併購後的內生增長為26%),希望教育/中彙集團分別增長15%/16.6%。(3)未來11月底高教公司即將公佈業績,也有望構成催化。推薦中教控股、新高教集團

從K12方面來看,(1)學科培訓推薦學大教育:公司是雙減前唯一順利完成定增的公司、在手現金充裕,高中一對一培訓部分不受政策影響,初中部分已經剝離,公司近期也轉型拓展至職業教育領域;(2)素質教育不受政策影響,推薦盛通股份:樂博有望在疫情後復甦,疊加行業預收款由年度改為季度、利好行業集中度提升。

從職業培訓類來看,推薦傳智教育(公司在進行了課程改革、營銷改革等舉措後,今年受疫情影響明顯減小,Q3業績超預期)、行動教育(公司上半年受疫情影響消課,下半年迎來修復),關注中公教育的協議班退款進展,若順利完成有望迎來估值修復

信達證券表示,從政策面出發,優選民辦高教、職教培訓、教育信息化版塊。民辦高教版塊,營利性選擇仍在推進,獨立學院轉設尚未全部完成,對於政策風險的擔憂逐步消解;學額增長驅動民辦高教的量增,平均學費小幅增長,量價齊升帶來內生穩定增長,估值處於低位,一二級市場估值倒掛,帶來併購進程趨緩;職業本科或將帶來新增長點。職教培訓版塊,短期疫情擾動不改長期邏輯,在國家政策鼓勵職教培訓的大背景下,職教培訓需求仍然旺盛,短期對於培訓需求的壓制將會在疫後加速兑現;降本增效逐步體現,帶來利潤端的恢復。教育信息化板塊,貼息再貸款政策出台,刺激教育信息化投入。K12教培版塊,“雙減”政策限制K9學科培訓,出台《暫行辦法》打擊違規“黑教培”“地下教培”,各K12教育公司面臨轉型。

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