《大行報告》高盛:港銀淨息差未見頂 維持中銀香港(02388.HK)確信名單評級「買入」
高盛發表研究報告指,匯豐銀行昨(15日)再度上調最優惠利率,為該輪加息週期的第三次,估計累計存款啤打(beta)值約為0.5倍,而11月22日最優惠利率上調後約為0.4至0.5倍。儲蓄存款的啤打值約為0.1至0.2倍,而定期存款則約為0.8至0.9倍。HIBOR在今年下半年大幅上升,料明年上半年的走勢將是啤打值和淨息差(NIM)的關鍵。該行預計,明年的銀行淨利息收入不會面臨重大風險。
該行表示,儘管存款啤打值上升,但淨息差 beta尚未降至零,因為銀行仍然擁有定價權,融資壓力沒有那麼大;銀行約30%的賬面是美元,利潤率可能會繼續上升,第三季淨息差 beta將低於第二季,並預計該趨勢將持續。該行認為,淨息差可能會在明年第一季或上半年期間達到頂峰。
該行認為,市場過度擔心經濟衰退風險會導致銀行信貸成本飆升、增長放緩、或2023財年後利率下調影響收入。意味著淨資產收益率因潛在的信貸惡化而大幅削減。該行維持中銀香港(02388.HK)確信名單評級「買入」;予匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)「買入」評級。
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