中銀香港(02388.HK):美聯儲明年2月加息幅度可望降至0.25%
美聯儲宣布加息50基點,並明確表示加息週期仍然未結束。中銀香港(02388.HK)個人數字金融產品部財富顧問處資深財富顧問高耀豪認為,美聯儲鷹派的議息內容,是要管理市場近日對下降加息幅度的亢奮情緒。
高耀豪相信,美聯儲明年2月加息步伐將取決於數據變化,近日通脹數據開始回軟,若沒有出現特別變化,下次議息加息幅度可望降至0.25%。然而,由於失業率仍處於極低水平,而工資增長仍然較高,相信其後仍有一至兩次加息0.25%的機會,以確保通脹能回落至目標水平,使聯邦基金利率接近點陣圖預測中位數。
高耀豪表示,雖然其後歐央行不少委員發表比議息內容較為鷹派的言論,但目前通脹有所回軟,能源價格仍算穩定,加上美聯儲開始放慢加息,所以相信應會考慮滯後效應的因素,故預計今次應將加息半厘。此外,為了控制通脹,預期明年2月繼續加息半厘的機會較高。
高耀豪認為,整體而言,英倫銀行需要控制仍處於極高水平的通脹,但不能太積極而加深經濟衰退,預期英倫銀行亦將加息半厘。利率市場目前預期明年可能將會加息到4.5%,不過央行早前表示,若跟隨市場路徑加息,英國經濟將經歷更長的衰退期,代表未來英倫銀行應該會維持較溫和的加息路徑,希望透過目前經濟衰退同步調節需求而降低通脹。 (ca/k)
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