《本地樓市》經絡:港銀加息未見頂 料P按息最快明年上半年增至6厘水平
美聯儲宣布加息0.5厘,聯邦基金利率目標範圍由3.75厘至4厘,提升至介乎4.25厘至4.5厘。匯豐銀行同日宣布跟隨加息,現時最優惠利率P將由5.375厘上調25點子,至5.625厘,年內已連續三次加息,累計加幅達0.625厘。
經絡按揭轉介首席副總裁曹德明表示,是次匯豐銀行加息幅度如市場預期,事實上近月拆息一直攀升,今日(15日)一個月HIBOR報4.85厘,連續一個半月維持3厘以上水平,早已高於一般銀行新造P按息率及H按封頂息率。而本港銀行體系結餘亦由今年年初3,775億元反覆下跌至現時約963億元水平。聯繫匯率制度下,港美息口差距進一步擴寬,加上拆息仍維持高水平,在資金成本壓力下,本港銀行加息亦無可避免,相信其他銀行會因應自身資金成本,將陸續跟隨加息步伐。
回顧2004至2006年加息周期美國累計加息達4.25厘,本港最優惠利率累計加息達3厘,現時美國短短九個月已累計加息達4.25厘,本港最優惠利率只加息三次,累計加息0.625厘。曹德明認為美國加息仍持續,港美息口差距進一步擴寬,加上拆息如維持高水平,本港銀行資金成本力將驟增,本港銀行下年加息仍未見頂,料最優惠利率P最快於2023年上半年增至6厘水平。
他指,現時按息雖升至3厘以上,但根據經絡按揭息率指數(MMI)過往數據,對比2000年代的平均息率為3.79厘、1990年代的平均息率為9.8厘,以及逾30年的平均息率為4.89厘,現時的按息水平步入正常化,仍屬正常水平。不過料加息將會持續,未來一年的供樓負擔或將繼續增加,曹德明提醒有意置業人士須有長遠穩健的財務安排及事前要衡量自身負擔能力。
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