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瑞銀投行:FOMC明年2月或傾向加息25點子
阿思達克 12-15 11:16
瑞銀投資銀行研究部首席美國經濟學家Jonathan Pingle表示,美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾稱有理由放緩加息,快速調整利率不再是當前階段的主要任務,因為據鮑威爾所述貨幣政策已處於「限制性」水平,意味著以更慢的速度達到「足夠限制性」水平,表明明年2月議息會議可能傾向於加息25點子。因此,瑞銀投行對聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在2月會議上將再次加息50點子的預測面臨下行風險。 Pingle解釋,一直預期FOMC在明年2月會議上將目標利率區間上調50點子,以確保短端價格與他們的目標一致,但隨著通脹下降,之後會停止加息。根據隔夜的會議資訊,認為終期利率預測4.75至5厘合適,但承認存在可能加息25點子兩次,而非加息50點子一次的風險。
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