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潑冷水?OPEC下調Q1原油需求預期,還呼籲成員國保持警惕
格隆匯 12-14 10:15

12月13日晚,OPEC公佈月報,將2022年全球經濟增長預測從2.7%上調至2.8%,將2023年全球經濟增長預期維持在2.5%不變。歐佩克維持2022年全球石油需求增速預期為225萬桶/日不變;將2023年全球石油需求增速預期由224萬桶/日上調至225萬桶/日。

此外,歐佩克下調2023年第一季度石油需求預測並呼籲成員國保持“警惕和謹慎”,預計2023年第一季度市場大致平衡,而不是一個月前的預測隱含的供不應求。相比上一份月報,OPEC最新預計全球對其原油需求或將下滑38萬桶/日。

儘管全球經濟的不確定性很高,主要經濟體的增長風險仍傾向於下行,但可能抵消當前和未來挑戰的上行因素也已經出現。

報吿顯示,東歐地緣政治衝突的解決和中國經濟復甦可能會給石油需求帶來一些上行潛力。

2022年中國的需求將平均為1479萬桶/天,比2021年減少18萬桶/天。根據Energy Aspects此前的預測,中國汽油、柴油和航空燃油需求將出現2002年以來的首次年度萎縮。

在經濟前景惡化和價格走弱的情況下,更廣泛的OPEC+聯盟承諾大幅減產以支撐市場後,OPEC11月的產量下降。11月,隨着油價走弱,OPEC+同意將其產量目標削減200萬桶/天,這是自2020年疫情初期以來的最大降幅。

OPEC在報吿中指出,11月日產量較10月減少74.4萬桶,至2883萬桶,主要出口國沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克等其他大型產油國領跌。

高盛大幅下調對明年上半年原油價格預期

同日,高盛也在報吿中指出,將2023年第一、二季度布倫特原油預期分別下調至90美元、95美元;將美國WTI第一、二季度平均價格下調至85美元、89美元。

原油現貨市場的大幅走弱,削弱了市場在俄羅斯原油出口受到制裁之前一直期待的看漲格局。上個月石油市場反季節供應增加了超過100萬桶/天,這也拖累原油價格。

但高盛也表示,當前原油疲弱的局面是暫時的,主要反映了高於預期的俄羅斯原油流入市場。

明年中國重新開放和恢復國際旅行,將帶來強勁的原油需求增長,而過去十年中的投資不足,將影響原油供應,因此從長期來看,高盛依然看多原油。

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