公司利潤下滑將是美股最大風險
本週美國的通脹數據和美聯儲的利率決議可能是大多數投資者非常關心的問題，但對於華爾街一些知名策略師而言，未來利潤下滑的前景纔是美股最大的風險。根據摩根士丹利Michael Wilson和高盛David Kostin週一發表的報告，由於美股公司的利潤率面臨壓力，它們2023年的業績收縮幅度可能會超過預期，令股市走勢艱難。
Wilson表示：“這個熊市最關鍵的部分是關於盈利預測，目前太高了。CPI結果和美聯儲會議是‘昨日舊聞’。”
Wilson和Kostin都認爲，美股在2023年將開局艱難，三大股指在第四季度反彈前均已跌入熊市。到目前爲止，通脹飆升和利率上升一直是投資者擔憂的核心問題，並且這種情況可能會持續存在。
美聯儲將於美東時間12月14日公佈利率決議，可能會將關鍵利率上調50個基點至4%-4.5%的區間，達到2007年以來的最高水平，還可能暗示2023年初將進一步加息。將於該會議前一天公佈的11月CPI預計會表明，雖然美國的通脹正在減速，但它仍然過高且令人不安。標普500指數上週下跌3.4%，原因是投資者擔心強勁的美國經濟將使美聯儲繼續實行激進的緊縮政策，或許會推動它創下2008年以來的最糟糕表現。
展望未來，Wilson預計美股公司2023年的業績將非常具有挑戰性，因爲成本將繼續高企，而營收卻下降。高盛的Kostin也持類似觀點，他指出，利潤率對盈利預測的影響可能超過預期。Kostin的團隊預計這些公司明年的利潤和標普500指數都不會上升。
高盛預計，標普500指數今年年底將收於4000點，而Wilson認爲將收於3900點。
有調查顯示，部分大型基金經理預測明年美股將出現低兩位數的漲幅，不過其他基金經理不認同該觀點。
Kostin表示：“許多投資者比我們更不看好美股的前景。預計2023年美國經濟將實現軟着陸，但如果陷入了衰退，美股的回報將低於預期。”
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
