渣打料明年中國經濟增長5.8% 人民幣溫和升值
渣打大中華及北亞區首席經濟師丁爽在記者會上表示,今年環球經濟增長料為3.4%,明年增長估計會降至約2.5%,明年上半年主要經濟體包括美國、歐盟或英國或會錄得溫和衰退,至下半年開始復甦。渣打預期美國今年經濟增長約2%,明年收縮0.2%;至於歐盟今年料增長3.3%,明年只增0.2%。經濟表現轉差主因央行收緊貨幣政策,加息以應對通脹高企,但預期明年上半年主要央行開始停止加息後,明年年中環球市場金融條件可趨向穩定。
他指,中國今年經濟受疫情影響,拖累投資同時令消費低迷,近月連外貿都出現負增長,拉動經濟的三頭馬車均表現不佳,預料今年中國經濟增長約3%,遠低於年初的5.5%目標。
不過,丁爽認為中國經濟最困難時刻已過,隨著疫情防控放鬆,相信明年消費會有恢復性反彈,經濟增長的推動力將由外貿轉向內需,消費對GDP的貢獻或達4至4.5個百分點。渣打對中國明年全年經濟增長預測為5.8%,高於市場預期,由於防控措施放寬初期確診可能大幅上升,民眾或減少出行,因此明年增長趨勢料呈前低後高,四個季度增長估計分別為3.5%、7%、5.8%及6.5%。
政策方面,他稱中國短期財政及貨幣政策料會偏向寬鬆,經濟狀況穩定下來後政策可能轉向中性,預期下周貸款市場報價利率(LPR)或有小幅下降,明年第一季該利率亦可能調低10點子。至於存款準備金率或於明年第二季下調25點子,但其後因要穩定槓桿率,下半年料不會再減息或降準。
另外,渣打中國宏觀策略部主管劉潔提到,人民幣匯率最差時期已過,近周的升值主要由跨境資本推動,升幅已高過預期。因二十大後中國對內對外政策都有大變動,重心重新轉向刺激經濟增長,相信明年人民幣會溫和升值,明年底兌美元料升值至七算以下。(ek/u)
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