渣打料明年香港經濟增長2.4% 港銀本月或再上調最優惠利率
渣打大中華區高級經濟師劉健恆在記者會上表示,香港今年經濟料錄3%收縮,明年估計會改善至增長約2.4%;由於歐美可能陷入衰退,在外圍經濟仍然疲弱下,本港經濟復甦相信會較為溫和。
他提到,現時本港失業率約為3.8%,料明年大部分時間仍會處平穩及健康水平。內地近期放鬆防疫措施,對於香港經濟何時能夠出現較大幅度復甦,他稱需視乎美國結束加息周期的時間,及香港與內地的跨境流動有明顯放鬆,目前未急於調高對香港的經濟預測。
劉健恆提到,自美國上次加息後Hibor持續上升,港銀最優惠利率及Hibor息差收窄,因此估計本周美國再上調息率後,港銀有較大機會需要調升最優惠利率。另外,他認為明年港元或持續偏弱一段時間,待確認美國加息周期完結後才可能轉強。
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