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瑞銀料內地明年信貸增速或放緩至9.8%
阿思達克 12-13 10:27
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤指,內地11月信貸增速進一步放緩,預計年底信貸增速大致企穩,明年可能小幅放緩至9.8%。 汪濤預計,政府或會繼續推升信貸來穩增長,包括加大對小微企業和基建的信貸支持,適度放鬆地方融資平臺的融資,並進一步放鬆房地產信貸。就後者而言,監管已出台多種政策措施加大對房地產開發商和「爛尾樓」項目的融資 和信貸支援,包括支援部分民營企業發債融資、債務展期等。 考慮到去年基數較高和房地產銷售持續低迷,她認為年底整體信貸增速可能在目前10%的水準大致持穩。未來房地產相關的信貸需求可能有所改善,基建和製造業相關的信貸需求可能溫和放緩,隨著中國經濟快速重啟、明年消費有望反彈,相關信貸需求可能有所好轉。
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