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《大行報告》匯豐研究料內地明年經濟增長5% 2024年增長5.8%
匯豐研究發表研究報告指,內地正從政策制定中轉向,料過渡階段會較多起伏,因為新冠肺炎病例將會大增,且衛生系統將日益緊張,令市場緊張不安。不過,該行相信內地將在2023年第二季起開始強勁復甦,預計增長勢頭將會增強,2023年GDP增長率料達5%,並在2024年達到5.8%。 該行表示,內地放寬防疫限制及對房地產市場的大力支持,對整個房地產供應鍊和相關行業以及廣泛的消費者和旅遊相關行業來說都是利好消息。該行強調,復甦的速度和規模將取決於內地擺脫疫情的速度和順利程度。 該行提到,私人發展商能夠捕捉最佳機遇,首選碧桂園(02007.HK);國企看好中國海外發展(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)和萬科企業(02202.HK)(000002.SZ)。航空公司方面,將中國國航(00753.HK)和南方航空(01055.HK)的評級上調至「買入」。該行又看好具有更高利潤率可見度及彈性,且受惠於重新開關的公司,例如百勝中國(09987.HK)。電子商務則看好阿里巴巴(09988.HK)和美團(03690.HK)。該行預測2023年底三大指數全線走高,上證綜指漲14.1%,滬深300漲13.1%,深證綜指20.3%,料2023年A股盈利增長18.3%。另外,該行將亞洲信貸由「中性」轉為「看好」。 股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價 萬科企業(02202.HK) | 買入 | 21.40港元 華潤置地(01109.HK) | 買入 | 47.40港元 中海發展(00688.HK) | 買入 | 27.30港元 碧桂園(02007.HK) | 買入 | 4.60港元 海螺水泥(00914.HK) | 買入 | 30.50港元 中國建材(03323.HK) | 買入 | 7.80港元 華潤水泥(01313.HK) | 持有 | 4.00港元 馬鋼(00323.HK) | 買入 | 2.00港元 鞍鋼(00347.HK) | 持有 | 2.40港元 百勝中國(09987.HK) | 買入 | 557.7港元 美團(03690.HK) | 買入 | 220.00港元 阿里巴巴(BABA.US) | 買入 | 124.00美元 中國國航(00753.HK) | 買入 | 8.50港元 南方航空(01055.HK) | 買入 | 6.20港元 東方航空(00670.HK) | 買入 | 4.00港元 國泰航空(00293.HK) | 買入 | 9.50港元
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