高盛:通脹見頂言之過早,2023年能源成本或再度飆升
高盛全球首席股票策略師Peter Oppenheimer表示,市場認爲通脹已經見頂的樂觀情緒是錯誤的,原因是2023年能源成本潛在的飆升可能會使物價和利率居高不下。
Peter Oppenheimer表示,來自中國的需求上升以及持續的供需壓力可能會在2023年推動能源和其他大宗商品價格飆升,這意味着近期油價下跌並推動通脹消退的希望將被削弱。他表示:“短期內,我們在風險資產中看到的圍繞通脹見頂和明年可能降息的樂觀情緒有點爲時過早。”
美國10月CPI超預期回落、以及油價跌至近一年來低點並回吐2022年全部漲幅,這些因素引發了人們對通脹最糟糕時期已經結束的樂觀情緒。目前債券市場對12個月後的通脹預期爲2.1%,美元指數較9月底的峯值下跌了約7%。儘管標普500指數在12月有所下跌,但仍較10月中旬的低點上漲了11%,而聯邦基金期貨預測美聯儲可能在2023年下半年開始降息。
但在Peter Oppenheimer看來,過去10年能源供應不足將意味着明年需求的任何回升都將推高油價,並限制通脹和利率從週期高點回落的速度。他補充稱:“我認爲,在利率可能接近峯值之前,風險資產不會出現持續復甦。”
在這樣的背景下,Peter Oppenheimer認爲2023年可以買入能源股,儘管該板塊在2022年已經出現了大幅上漲。他還表示,擁有現金流和可持續利潤率的公司將比單純營收增長的股票表現更好。
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