建銀國際料明年恆指在16,200至22,200點區間波動
建銀國際證券研究部董事總經理及首席策略師趙文利預計,港股明年繼續修復,波動中樞攀升,預料明年恆指波動區間介乎16,200點至22,200點,主要是基於內地和香港經濟將溫和復甦、成熟市場衰退、聯儲局加息周期結束及人民幣匯率反彈;國企指數波動區間或介乎5,700點至7,800點,科技指數介乎3,200點至5,300點。
他表示,近期恆指升近20,000點關,短期內會有所波動,料有機會上漲,目前估值仍有修復空間,並持續至明年3月,對於能否升穿22,200點,則要視乎明年中後期的基本面恢復程度、或有機會上調,但暫時難以預測。他預料,市場最快明年次季再度出低點,恆指或會跌至16,000點,取決於美國加息步伐、美國經濟衰退等因素。
他表示,明年全球多個經濟體進入溫和衰退,通脹持續回落,惟仍高於聯儲局的目標水平,他預料,加息周期於明年首季結束,惟其後減息機會較微,料聯邦基金利率目標範圍明年首季達介乎4.75%至5%水平,並橫行至第三季。
他表示,明年催化劑來自於聯儲局加息步伐、疫情發展、穩經濟政策等因素;而明年十大焦點股包括,京東集團-SW(09618.HK)、美團-W(03690.HK)、康方生物-B(09926.HK)、華晨中國(01114.HK)、安踏體育(02020.HK)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)、中國平安(02318.HK)、信義光能(00968.HK)以及敏華控股(01999.HK)。
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