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兩個月前精準預測美股本輪反彈後,華爾街“大空頭”開始看跌
uSMART盈立智投 12-06 16:41

摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析師Mike Wilson認爲,當前這場「熊市反彈」結束在即,美股明年將創新低,他建議投資者「在熊市迴歸之前,獲利了結」。

兩個月前,華爾街大空頭之一的摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析師Mike Wilson精準預測了美股的這一波反彈,但如今,他的觀點卻出現了轉變。

在過去兩個月的時間裏,標普500指數累計上漲了近20%,這和Wilson的預測基本一致。

不過,Wilson在最新的研究報告中稱,在上週美聯儲主席鮑威爾講話結束後,“現在的這場派對結束了”,並建議投資者“在熊市迴歸之前,獲利了結”。

Wilson說:

如果這次反彈,標普500指數要進一步上漲至4150點甚至更高,我們認爲美股必須由納斯達克指數領漲,與道指不同,納斯達克指數仍遠低於其200天移動平均線。這也意味着基本面正在進一步惡化,後端利率將不得不進一步下降,以通過空頭回補來支撐估值。

美聯儲若轉向,將利好美股

Wilson認爲,美聯儲在爲時已晚之前轉向的希望越來越大,即,美聯儲的轉向有可能避免衰退並擴大企業盈利。他從如下幾個角度來分析這一問題:

首先,爲什麼美國國債漲幅如此之大?Wilson認爲,這主要與鮑威爾沒有阻止放鬆金融狀況有關。威爾遜認爲,鮑威爾尤其在這個因素方面聽起來更加強硬,但實際上可能是更爲鴿派。 如果看一看金融環境在過去一年裏收緊了多少,就很難說它們放鬆了那麼多。

d47f447a-8fd0-4ccf-89cf-95145ce05673.png

其次,上週五的非農就業數據強於預期,這引發了週五美股和美債的快速拋售,但從技術角度看,兩者都沒有完全轉頭向下。相反,美債依然維持在反彈的趨勢上,長期債券甚至維持漲勢,標普500指數也險守200日移動均線。 簡而言之,正如Wilson指出的那樣,勞動力市場的表現並沒有嚇跑美債多頭,隨着經濟增長放緩和美聯儲暫停加息活動,實際利率可能會在明年進一步下行。

第三,幾周前,Wilson強調了自10月開始反彈以來,美股出現了廣泛的改善,而非集中在幾隻股票上。事實上,所有主要股指的幅度現在都遠高於夏季反彈期間達到的水平,這是一個不容忽視的積極因素。Wilson依然強調,明年美股將創下新低。

“熊市反彈”結束在即

不過Wilson也警告稱:

對明年的收益前景持嚴重負面看法,即使我們避開了經濟衰退/勞動力週期,爭取這種潛在上行的風險回報也很低。

此外,雖然標準普爾500指數上週確實突破了200日移動均線,但Wilson認爲這是“完美的多頭陷阱”,特別是考慮到自高峯以來形成的下行趨勢的上方阻力。

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最後,在2019年和2021年牛市即將結束時,標普500指數從未達到基於廣度的潛力,今天的情況與這兩次類似。

Wilson稱:

我們6周前所稱的熊市反彈正在失去動力。雖然到年底可能會有一些最後的餘力,但鑑於我們對明年遠低於市場普遍預期的EPS的預測,情況已經實質性惡化。

他認爲目前“與一年前和8月份熊市反彈後的情況一樣沒有吸引力”。 從短期的角度來看,他表示,“4150點是這次反彈可以實現的上限”,如今,標普500指數“跌破上週低點3938點,與150天移動平均線重合,將提供一些確認熊市即將回歸的趨勢。”

最後,Wilson預計通脹將在2023年快速下降。

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