光大證券國際料明年初美息加幅縮小 看好金融科技板塊
光大證券國際環球市場及外匯策略師黃俊能表示,目前環球經濟下行風險增大,環球央行目前利率水平已接近2018年水平,預期今年第四季加息速度達致高峰,並延續至明年初,惟加幅較今年少,市場預期聯邦基金利率提高至5.25厘,至於何時才停止加息,便要視乎明年當時情況。
對於明年投資策略方向,他看好金融科技板塊,主要是疫情加快全球數碼化步伐,在金融服務系統中處於重要位置,同時今年股票表現出現明顯折讓,料該板塊在疫後時代具一定的發展空間。
另外,他建議投資者傾向選擇低波幅高息的股票,而非保留過多現金,令購買力被通脹蠶食,同時亦要在資產組合中加入一定比例的投資級別債券,可分期經濟下行風險。
至於外匯市場前景,他表示,由於市場對加息憧憬降溫,令債息受壓,故美元回落;人民幣方面,受到市場對明年加息預期放緩,或有回升動力,加上內地政策穩定為經濟帶來韌性,有助資金回流,增加人民幣需求。
在環球股票市場方面,他表示,偏好亞洲(日本除外)、新興市場、歐美市場則為中性;並對黃金、石油等產品持中性看法。
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