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2023展望 | 消費先必選後可選,啤酒、乳製品獲看好
uSMART盈立智投 12-05 16:28

本文來源於海通國際《消費行業 2023 年度投資策略:消費恢復仍有波折,投資先必選後可選》

需求:疫後消費恢復仍有波折

我們對國外研究發現:去年海外防疫放開後,多數國家和地區零售額實現恢復性增長,今年以來則基本企穩,迴歸疫前趨勢;日本、韓國和臺灣地區消費信心在短暫修復後甚至再次回落;疫後非耐用品消費持續溫和復甦,耐用品消費快速反彈並於兩個季度內完成「填坑」,但服務業消費恢復則相對緩慢且滯後。

結合國內情況,2023年我們相對看好啤酒、乳製品、預製菜等全年增長,白酒、餐飲、紡服等下半年好轉。

成本:CPI和PPI背離提高盈利

隨着需求恢復、農產品漲價和服務業出清,明年國內CPI大概率溫和上行。而國外經濟衰退和國內房產低迷,可能導致商品價格下跌並拖累PPI。HTI消費品成本指數顯示:目前軟飲料、啤酒、乳製品、方便麪、調味品現貨指數同比分別下降14%、9%、9%、7%和6%,調味品、軟飲料、啤酒、方便麪期貨指數同比分別下降11%、9%、7%和2%。

資金:內外資均有望否極泰來

歷史數據顯示股市資金面與行情正相關。隨着我國基本面和政策面向上趨勢進一步確認,市場情緒將得到提振。居民儲蓄率可能從22年的約35%高位連續多年下降,基金、股票類投資佔比有望低位回升。陸股通資金截至11月上旬今年淨流入幾乎爲零,一改多年持續大幅淨流入的狀況。而對國外衰退擔憂加劇,國內疫情防控和匯率貶值擔憂緩解,11月中下旬多日淨流入高達百億左右,2023年有望重回大幅淨流入。

估值:A股和H股比美股更低

  • A股食品飲料行業PE(TTM)處於2011年至2019年(較新冠疫情前)的75%分位(31.4x);子行業分位較低的是肉製品(0%,17.3x)、保健品(11%,23.0x)和乳品(23%,24.8x)。

  • H股必需性消費行業處於77%分位(21.6x);子行業分位較低的是包裝食品(0%,12.2x)、超市及便利店(0%,11.2x)和乳製品(4%,13.3x)。

  • 美股日常消費品行業處於100%分位(25.7x);子行業分位較低的是食品零售(31%,13.5x)、菸草(46%,16.4x)和啤酒(65%,23.9x)。

建議:持續看好消費行業,建議先必選後可選

近日全國所有省級地區都受到疫情幹擾,新增患者數量再創年內新高。展望明年,預計疫情管控放寬概率較大,但對照國外消費復甦可能先抑後揚甚至先抑後平。

因此,建議前期優先選擇需求平穩的必選消費,特別是估值偏低的優秀公司,在疫後變化明朗後再佈局可選消費。食品飲料主要子行業推薦排序爲:啤酒=乳製品=高端白酒=養殖業>區域性白酒=調味品>次高端白酒=方便食品。

看多個股爲華潤啤酒、青島啤酒、重慶啤酒、伊利股份、蒙牛乳業、中國飛鶴、貴州茅臺、五糧液、山西汾酒、瀘州老窖、洋河股份、迎駕貢酒、金龍魚、牧原股份、優然牧業、現代牧業等;看空個股爲古井貢酒、捨得酒業、酒鬼酒、百威亞太、海天味業等。其他消費行業推薦個股爲中國中免、錦江酒店、海爾智家、歐派家居、李寧等。

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