瑞銀汪濤:維持內地明年GDP增速4.5%預測
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤估計,內地經濟增長動能可能走弱,其中工業生產、社會消費品零售、房地產銷售和出口都可能放緩。房地產投資可能繼續按年大幅下跌,而基建投資仍保持強勁。信貸按年增速可能小幅放緩0.2個百分點。CPI按年可能回落,而PPI按年或進一步下行。
對於即將在12月中旬召開的中央經濟工作會議,她預計,會議將更加強調穩增長、持續優化防疫政策、保持積極的財政政策基調、維持支持性的貨幣政策基調、加大對房地產行業的支持力度,並強調綠色經濟、創新和共同富裕。
而由於近期人民幣對美元走強,11月資本流動外流壓力可能略有緩解。她估算主要儲備貨幣匯率變動可能帶來600億至650億美元的大幅估值收益,估算外匯儲備規模可能增加約800億美元至3.132萬億美元。她預計,今年第四季和明年首季經濟增長動能較為乏力,但第二季經濟增長料開始反彈。因此,預計今年第四季和明年第一季GDP增速將保持低迷,維持2023年GDP增速為4.5%的預測。
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