渣打料明年內地城市家庭實際消費開支增長加快至7% 貢獻GDP約3個百分點
渣打發表報告,就明年內地消費對GDP貢獻作出三個情境預測,在基本情境下,料內地將在明年次季撤銷大部分防疫限制,致使明年下半年家庭消費恢復至疫情前水平(2017至2019年)。在這情境下,料明年城市家庭實際消費開支增長加快至7%,遠高於今年預測的0.2%,貢獻明年GDP約3個百分點,亦遠高於今年預測的0.1個百分點。計及農村家庭及政府,總消費料為明年GDP帶來4個至4.5個百分點的貢獻,高於今年預測僅貢獻約1個百分點。
在樂觀情境下,倘內地較市場預期更早時間撤銷防疫限制,家庭消費自明年首季起恢復至疫情前趨勢,渣打估算城市家庭消費及總消費將對明年內地GDP帶來4個及約5個百分點的貢獻。
在悲觀情境下,倘明年內地大致維持嚴厲防疫措施,家庭消費增速維持於2021年末季至2022年首季的速度,則料城市家庭消費僅對明年內地GDP帶來1.8個百分點的貢獻。
此外,倘城市家庭在明年動用其2020至2022年間剩餘儲蓄的一半,則可為明年內地GDP帶來額外1個百分點的貢獻。
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