《大行報告》摩通料MSCI中國指數至明年底潛在上升一成 薦消費及基建等四大投資主題
摩根大通發表研究報告指,基於未來一年預測市盈率約9.8倍及每股盈利增長14%的預期,估計MSCI中國指數至2023年底將有約10%潛在上升空間,即指數將重回到2022年8月水平。
報告表示,中國股市自11月起出現反彈,主要來自於防疫政策調整、當局對房地產開發商融資渠道的支持,以及中美關係取得進展,預期12月舉行的中央經濟工作會議將提及來年的財政和貨幣政策方向。
該行指,市場疫情及防疫措施的擔憂可能會持續到農曆新年,屆時可能會疊加市場衰退風險、企業每股盈利下降及風險偏好信心疲軟等不明朗因素。但同時摩通預期,隨著消費者和企業信心逐漸回升,未來市況應該會有所改善,到明年底投資者或可抱更樂觀態度去審視2024年的增長前景。
該行列出四大投資主題,分別是消費行業、基建投資、高質量金融服務商及本地工業生產;並列出首選股份,包括騰訊(00700.HK)、中國移動(00941.HK)、拼多多(PDD.US)、比亞迪(01211.HK)、百勝中國(09987.HK)(YUMC.US)、青島啤酒(00168.HK)、貴州茅台、邁瑞醫療、恆瑞醫藥、中海油服、神華(01088.HK)、華潤集團、恆立液壓、陽光電源、寧德時代、中國建材(03323.HK)、鞍鋼(00347.HK)、贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)、隆基股份、立訊精密、華峰測控技術股份、龍源電力(00916.HK)、建行(00939.HK)、中國人壽(02628.HK)、中信證券(06030.HK)、中國海外發展(00688.HK)和華潤置地(01109.HK)。(gc/s)
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