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美銀預計經濟衰退或迫使美聯儲在2023年底降息,從而壓低美債收益率

美國銀行的美國利率策略負責人Mark Cabana表示,美國銀行認爲美國經濟將在明年年中左右進入衰退,這將推動美聯儲在2023年底降息,並且美國10年期國債收益率將在明年下降。

來源:智通財經

換句話說,該行策略師們預計,美聯儲將在2023年末被迫下調利率,以抵消勞動力市場走軟,此舉將有助於美債收益率曲線的一個關鍵部分恢復正常。

據瞭解,今年以來,美聯儲已將利率上調了375個基點,試圖降低數十年來最高的通脹。而受美聯儲激進加息影響,短期美債收益率自年中以來就超過了期限較長債券的收益率,也就是發生了所謂的倒掛。長期以來,收益率曲線倒掛曾準確預警了經濟衰退。

對此,Cabana預計美聯儲將再加息三次,直到明年3月份達到5.25%的最終利率。他說,政策制定者可能會在2023年12月開始降息。屆時,美國10年期國債收益率將從明年第一季度的4%下降到年底的3.25%。當前,美國10年期國債收益率爲3.73%,預計今年將達到4.3%左右,爲2007年以來的最高水平。

同時,該行預計,到2023年底,美國2年期和10年期國債的收益率都將在3.25%左右,然後這段曲線會在2024年變成正值。

Cabana稱:“這顯然與我們今天的情況形成了非常鮮明的對比,當前美國2年期和10年期國債的收益率曲線有75個基點的倒掛。”

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