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歐元區通脹也放緩!11月CPI同比上漲10%,環比下降0.1%

根據歐盟統計局的初步估計,2022年11月歐元區年通脹率預計將為 10.0%,低於10月份的10.6%。

從歐元區通脹的主要組成部分來看,能源和食品繼續對高通脹數據做出貢獻,但前者明顯下降。根據歐盟統計局的數據,預計 11 月份能源的年增長率為 34.9%,而 10 月份為 41.5%。其次是食品、煙酒(13.6%,10月為13.1%)、非能源工業產品(6.1%,與10月相比穩定)和服務(4.2%,10月為4.3%)。

而剔除波動較大的能源和食品,9月核心調和CPI同比初值上升5%,與預期和上月持平,依舊為歷史最高水平。

分國別來看,德國、意大利、西班牙和荷蘭的通脹情況有所緩和。

“整體HICP通脹率從 10 月的 10.6% 下降至11月的 10.0%,這是自2021年6月以來的首次下降,降幅大於最初的預期,”Capital Economics 首席歐洲經濟學家安德魯肯寧厄姆在一份報吿中表示。

“考慮到月度數據的波動,我們不會對12 月或1月總體通脹率再次上升感到驚訝,但毫無疑問,明年通脹率將迅速下降,”他補充道。

荷蘭國際銀行歐元區高級經濟學家Bert Colijn在一份報吿中表示,歐元區通脹率在11月小幅下降,但通脹是否觸頂還有待觀察。能源危機的再一次爆發很容易再次推高通脹,而在供應衝擊之後,核心通脹通常被證明是具有粘性的。

 

歐洲央行仍堅定加息

 

較低的通脹數據可能反映了近期利率上升,並可能意味着未來幾個月加息幅度較小或較少。然而,在本週早些時候的講話中,歐洲央行行長拉加德預測其基準利率將進一步升高。

歐洲央行行長拉加德預期,歐央行將進一步加息,2022年第三季度,歐元區GDP增速放緩至0.2%。她表示,不會過於冒進地表態稱歐元區通脹已經見頂,通脹前景面臨的風險仍偏上行,但相信歐元區通脹最終將會回落。

“我們希望將利率進一步提高到確保通脹及時回到我們2% 的中期目標所需的水平,”她吿訴歐洲立法者。

對於利率需要進一步提高多少,以及以多快的速度提高,拉加德表示這將取決最新展望、衝擊的持續性、工資和通脹預期的反應,以及央行對傳導的評估。

歐盟央行今年已三次加息,預計12月將再次加息,外界普遍預計加息50個基點。

拉加德同時呼籲歐盟委員會和歐盟成員國執行可持續的財政政策,推動歐盟經濟向可持續和數字化轉型,確保歐盟的經濟安全。

據歐洲央行的測算,2022年第三季度歐元區經濟比上一季度微增0.2%。此前,歐洲央行發表的調查報吿曾預測,今年第三季度和第四季度歐元區經濟將陷入衰退。

花旗預計歐元區將在今年年底前陷入衰退,因為這面臨能源供應和需求方面的限制,以及收緊的貨幣和財政政策。花旗預計,2023年歐元區經濟將收縮0.4%。

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