期權大單 | 拼多多帶領中概大漲!布拉德稱市場低估加息可能性
一、期權異動

11月28日,美股拼多多、暴雪、Zoom等標的出現了期權成交量上的較大變化,分別爲日常成交量的2.7、3.3、1.9倍。
拼多多擋不住了?
拼多多週一有15.2萬份期權合約交易。看漲期權佔整體期權交易的63%。12月2日到期的行權價80美元的看漲期權成交量尤其高,有6,095份合約交易。財報方面,拼多多三季度營收同比增長65%至355億元,淨利潤同比增長546%至105.88億元;並將繼續加大投入推動供給側升級。股價週一大漲超12%。
從營收增速來看,拼多多算一騎絕塵。第三季度,拼多多的營收同比增長了65.1%,遠高於阿裏3%和京東11.4%的同比增長速度。同時,這也是拼多多最近一年來的最高同比增速,前兩個季度,其分別實現7%、36%的增速。
具體到核心電商業務上,拼多多與阿裏、京東的差距也正在進一步縮小。數據顯示,2022年第三季度,阿裏的客戶管理收入,也即以淘寶和天貓兩大電商平臺爲主的廣告和傭金收入,爲664.97億元,相比上年同期的711.31億元同比下跌了7%。而這已經是較上一季度有所改善的情況,上個季度,阿裏的客戶管理收入錄得了10%的同比下滑。
相比之下,拼多多三季度的“在線營銷及其他業務”板塊(即商家廣告收入)和“交易服務”板塊(即包括使用多多支付的手續費,多多買菜和電商傭金收入),分別達到了284.26億元、70.22億元,增幅高達58%、102%。這兩塊拼多多最主要的電商業務的合計收入體量已經達到阿裏核心電商收入的約53%,而上個季度,這個數據纔剛過43%。
阿裏巴巴方面,異動大單中看漲期權交易佔絕對多數,三份未來一個月左右到期的看漲期權的行權價格在77—95美元之間。從月線角度觀察,大概位於8月反彈失利,重回跌勢的位置。可見,自財報以來,阿裏巴巴積累了一定得看漲情緒,但短線目標價格不高,仍期待其回到上半年的一個平臺位置再做觀察。由於時近年末,這種謹慎情緒是可以理解的;同時,如果價格真的回到90—100美元之間,就給了明年反彈一個很好的立足點,未來值得期待。
二、總成交量前10
11月28日週一,美股收跌。美聯儲鷹派官員布拉德稱金融市場低估了美聯儲明年大幅加息的可能性。截至收盤,納斯達克指數跌幅爲1.58%;道瓊斯指數跌幅爲1.45%;標普500指數跌幅爲1.54%。

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