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《內地樓市》惠譽:中資民營房企流動性仍將偏緊 支持性政策旨在保交樓
惠譽評級表示,中資民營房企的流動性在未來數季度或會改善,但仍會偏緊,因為中期財報顯示其流動性指標因銷售乏力和外部融資渠道有限而持續惡化。近期出台的支持性政策主要旨在「保交樓」,而非緩解困境房企的負債違約。 惠譽評級對100間境內及香港上市中資房企進行研究後發現,民營房企的現金/短期借款比率的中值從2021年末的0.9倍惡化至2022年中的0.5倍,而國有房企持續穩定在1.4倍至1.5倍。此外,由於房企相當大部分的現金餘額通常不可動用且部分負債未計入表內,上述比率可能高估了其真實的流動性水平。另外,相較於國有房企,民營房企可能在藉款結構方面存在更大的流動性風險,且短期應付壓力更大,因為銀行和其他債權人漸趨不願向房企提供長期貸款。 民營房企為應對融資和流動性困境,普遍採取激進的降價活動,但是,由於購房者對能否交房和房屋質量存在擔憂,民營房企的合約銷售額總體上仍遜於國有房企。紓困的其他方式包括資產處置和增信支持發債,但是這些努力杯水車薪。 中國銀行業監管機構於11月出台了提振房企和建築企業外部融資的有力支持政策。儘管如此,惠譽預期,政策的效果將取決於具體落實情況,因為銀行可能因風險考量而不願向民營房企全額度提供貸款。在尚無深入且更有力的政策推動的情況下,民營房企的流動性或將繼續偏緊。
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