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陳偉明:港股回吐 分注吸納
阿思達克 11-28 11:37
耀才證券銷售客戶服務部高級經理陳偉明稱,世界盃舉行期間,港股成交淡靜,恆指上周未見明確方向,僅在17,500點附近窄幅上落,即使中證監主席易會滿早前提及國企估值有重估空間、新經濟板塊近期業績理想、美國議息紀錄顯示多數官員認同在未來放緩加息步伐、內地放風降準,港股仍然拒絕向上,反映港股月初升幅已經完全把利好消息反映,短線應該有回吐壓力,筆者上周亦繼續提醒各位,撈貨時機要等待,並且可考慮在港股17,700點以上繼續造淡。 人民銀行一如所料上周五(25日)收市後公布全面降準0.25厘,但對港股完全沒有幫助,相反內地疫情持續升級、美匯反彈、人仔又再度回軟,港股今早(28日)已跌穿17,000點。這次港股在11月中18,414點見頂後回吐,之後在17,500點略見短暫支持後再插,完全符合筆者預期,目前正準備等待港股回吐至大約16,700點以下開始分注買貨。 正如早前筆者多次提醒,美國雖然加息壓力減低,但高息周期應該仍然有一段時間,不利於新經濟板塊,從而間接拖累恆指表現,美匯雖近期回落,但短線應略有反彈,內地早前憧憬疫情措施放寬,當市場意識到內地疫情持續嚴重,很容易成為拖累內地與香港兩地股市的誘因,人行降準會拖低人民幣匯價,亦間接不利港股走勢。結論是在美匯反彈、人仔回落、新經濟板塊回軟、內地疫情惡化下,港股升得多總要還,因此港股跌至17,000點以下仍然是筆者預期之內。 值得留意,港股近期下跌最主要是消化港股早前過急的升勢,未來在內地政策轉向穩經濟支持下,筆者相信港股在17,000點以下跌幅相對有限,繼續造淡略嫌太遲,策略重點應該是耐心等待港股回吐至16,700點以下分注吸納股票,主力Short Put 美團-W(03690.HK)及濠賭板塊。預期港股短期只會在16,500至17,500點附近區間上落。 (筆者為證監會持牌人) ********* 恆指或下試16,900點支持 耀才研究部稱,上周五(25日)美股收市個別發展,科技股表現偏弱。展望本周,美股將迎來多項非農經濟數據以及PMI景氣指數,另外聯儲局將會公布經濟褐皮書,主席亦會及表公開講話,雙方對聯儲未來的加息態度有著重要影響,需密切留意。港股方面,內地上周全面降準0.25個百分點,共計釋放長期資金約5,000億元人民幣,不過滬深收緊對公共場所的防疫限制,將會壓制股市的彈幅,股市將下移至即市支持即20天及50天線水平將16,900的水平。 由11月的升浪開始起計,恆指最多曾經升超過3,800點,以黃金比率起計的話,回調0.382的水平可能會回試16,934點,此水平亦同為50天線及20天線,投資者可以留意這個水平作為氣氛分水嶺。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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