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瑞銀:內房業政策加快出台 料中國銀行業不會發生銀行業危機
瑞銀大中華金融股票研究主管顏湄之表示,銀行業與房地產業緊密相連,估算銀行業的房地產敞口約為88萬億元。儘管最近由出台更強有力的刺激措施和資金支持,房地產業下行可能會在未來幾年給銀行體系造成1.4-1.5萬億元的損失。 假設損失確認在三年內平均分佈,銀行業不良貸款覆蓋率將從今年上半年的203.8%下降至2023年的141.8%。2023年淨利潤將下降16.3%,銀行體系核心一級資本充足率將下降50個基點。整個銀行體系資產負債表上的不良貸款準備金高達6萬億元,若有需要可用來登出不良貸款。整個銀行體系資產負債表上的不良貸款準備金高達6萬億元,但目前來看,她預計不會發生銀行業危機。 央行及銀保監會繼早前發布254號文,提出16條措施以支撐陷入困境的房地產業之後,過去幾天又推出了多項政策,包括央行向六家大型國有銀行提供2000億元免息再貸款支援保交樓,和大型國有銀行宣布向部分開發商提供授信,這表明穩定房地產業的相關政策措施正在加快出台。
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