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一文綜合大行於小米(01810.HK)公布季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
小米-W(01810.HK)今早股價造淡,最新報9.39港元下滑4.2%。大和發表報告表示,小米第三季業績符預期,基於內地宏觀經濟挑戰新冠疫情發展,該行料小米今年第四季至2023年硬件產品銷售放縵,料內地重新開放將有助於刺激中國市場的需求復甦,但該行認為這只於2023年第二季度之後成為其股價催化劑,維持「持有」評級及目標價9.5港元。 小米昨日(23日)公布截至今年9月底止第三季業績,盈轉虧蝕14.76億元人民幣,上年同期賺7.92億人民幣;每股虧損0.06元人民幣。以非國際財務報告準則計算,經調整淨利潤為21.17億元人民幣,按年跌59.1%。期內錄得投資公允價值虧損23.9億元人民幣,較去年同期的虧損19.75億元人民幣擴大。第三季經營虧損達13.61億元人民幣,對比去年同期錄經營利潤27.3億元人民幣。 小米第三季收入達704.74億人民幣,按年跌9.7%。其中,智能手機業務收入達425.14億人民幣,按年跌11.1%。小米解釋,第三季智能手機出貨量按年跌8.4%至4,020萬台,加上產品平均售價下跌,拖累業務收入。而IoT與生活消費產品收入為190.58億人民幣,跌近9%;互聯網服務收入則跌3.7%至70.66億人民幣。於9月份全球及中國大陸的MIUI月活躍用戶數再創新高,分別達到5.63億及1.41億人。 【受累宏觀弱 憂疫情影響】 摩根大通表示,小米上季非國際財務報告準則計算經調整淨利潤按年跌59%,受宏觀經濟拖累令其各業務放慢,認為公司在內地庫存調整已基本完成,但補貨過程趨緩,料其中國市場份額增長前景有限,維持「中性」評級及目標價11.5港元。 瑞信發表報告表示,小米第三季收入及經調整盈利大致符合該行及市場預期,智能手機毛利率錄8.9%(按年跌3.9個百分點及按季升0.2個百分點),主要是印度進行推廣及持續去庫存,維持對其「跑贏大市」評級,上調對其目標價由10.9港元升至11.5港元。該行認為小米股價已反映安卓智能手機疲弱因素,預計未來1至2個季度庫存將觸底,但近期需求復甦仍是推動市場情緒的關鍵。 ------------------------------------ 下表列出8間券商對其評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價(港元) 野村│中性│16元 瑞銀│買入│13.5元 星展│買入│13.3元 高盛│買入│13元 摩根士丹利│增持│12元 瑞信│跑贏大市│10.9->11.5元 摩根大通│中性│11.5元 大和│持有│9.5元 券商│觀點 野村│料第四季度銷售和毛利率可望改善,但淨利潤或會惡化 瑞銀│季績符預期,去庫存持續 星展│智能手機毛利率收縮,因銷售弱致庫存增加 高盛│第三季營業收入及符預期,盈利表現超預期因優成本控制得宜 摩根士丹利│上季業績符預期,料第四季度智能手機毛利率有改善 瑞信│第三季業績基本符預期,料庫存於明年首季初恢復正常 摩根大通│估值雖便宜,但缺乏具體的催化劑 大和│疫情對其內地銷售復甦繼續面對挑戰,下調其今年智能手機出貨量預測 (ta/w) ~
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