量化基金今年來首次做多美股!
由於美股看漲者所剩無幾,快錢量化基金正在以疫情開始以來從未見過的速度囤積股票。德意志銀行的分析顯示,由於大型通脹交易顯示出崩潰的跡象,交易員被迫買入股票,現在他們今年首次增持股票,勢頭信號表明,他們可能不得不很快搶購更多股票。
根據高盛集團董事總經理Scott Rubner的估計,在過去一個月裏,在CPI數據推動美股上漲的情況下,在期貨市場上持有多頭和空頭頭寸的商品交易顧問(CTA)不得不買入了約1460億美元的股票,這是2020年3月以來最大的買入熱潮。該銀行表示,如果市場本週保持不變,這些交易團體可能還必須再購買價值130億美元的股票。
德意志銀行策略師Parag Thatte表示:“如果股票保持在當前水平,且/或波動性下降,那麼它們將增加風險敞口。當波動性很高時,CTA會降低風險敞口,因此,如果波動性減弱,它們的配置應該更高。”美國感恩節假期通常會讓一週的交易平靜下來。

在最新的CPI數據低於預期後,量化基金措手不及,因爲該數據引發了跨資產反彈和股票購買熱潮。德意志銀行的數據顯示,在反彈後,CTA的股票配置躍升至15%左右,但低於過去達到了高達40%至50%的峯值。法國興業銀行的數據顯示,過去兩週,基於規則的交易員虧損了5%,但仍有望結束有記錄以來最好的一年,今年迄今獲益了21%。
在2022年的大部分時間裏,隨着美聯儲轉向激進收緊政策以遏制價格上漲,趨勢追隨者對股票和債券的空頭押注是一種獲勝的交易。通脹進程的變化可能意味着這些歷史性收益的放緩,並回到大流行前時代動盪的市場趨勢。
不過,對於68億美元對衝基金Transtrend的執行董事Andre Honig來說,最新通脹數據之後的市場逆轉並不是結束該羣體所看到的巨大收益的理由。他稱:“對於一項戰略來說,更重要的是在這種市場行動之後,在評估市場風險時不要手足無措。”
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