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《大行報告》中金:探索中國特色估值體系 料內銀及國有上市企業估值有提升空間
中金發報有關中國策略簡評報告指,內地銀行及國有上市企業估值中樞有提升空間。 報告指,從結構上來看,A股估值並不均衡。近十年銀行及國有上市公司的估值趨勢回落,當前已處於歷史區間偏低水平,這與近年中國銀行業和國有企業的相對有韌性的基本面形成反差。截至11月21日,上市國企和非國企的市盈率TTM估值分別為11倍和34.3倍;其中金融板塊的估值更低,當前的市盈率和市淨率分別為5.9倍和0.58倍,市淨率估值已處於歷史最低狀態;上市銀行的市盈率和市淨率為4.3 倍和0.51倍,股息率高至6.1%。 報告認為,橫向對比全球公司,中國的銀行及國有上市公司的估值也普遍低於海外可比公司。實際上,從經營層面來看,國有上市公司在2016年以來的盈利增速和盈利能力相比非國企均有較為明顯的改善,債務壓力問題經歷多年國企改革也已基本化解,上市銀行盈利增長較為穩健且ROE高於非金融整體,未來在「中國特色現代資本市場」的積極建設過程中,投資者有望逐步改善對上市國企和金融板塊的價值的認知。
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