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牛津經濟研究院:內房將經歷漫長的L型跌浪 但出現崩潰的可能性不大
格隆匯 11-23 12:53
格隆匯11月23日丨內房市場持續低迷,牛津經濟研究院認爲,僅管內地房地產市場的情況與1990年代日本房地產泡沫及2007年美國樓市相似,但中國對房地產支持的措施力度相對較強,而且中國處於城鎮化初期,城鎮化比率只有63%,低於美國及日本的80%及77%,中線有助支持的結構性住房需求,因此內房市場出現崩潰的可能性不大,但相信會經歷一場維持較久的L型下降趨勢。 牛津經濟研究院指,內房市場的調整是必要的,即使價格及房地產活動仍然低迷,但風險傾向於軟着陸,同時政府政策致力避免內房出現嚴重及具破壞性的下滑,影響經濟及社會穩定性。 從供應端來看,政府會推出針對性措施,以支持內房需求,並紓緩內房開發展的流動性問題,而推出政策的時間及力度,將決定內房能否避過崩潰,但不預期中央會推出大規模的財政刺激或基建政策。 牛津經濟研究院重申,內房市場不會成爲內地經濟的增長引擎,也不會是導致明年內地金融市場崩坍的原因,但內房債務的溢出效應,特別是高調違約事件,將會令市場信心大幅下降,變成行業的主要下行風險。
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