高盛預計2023年美股熊市將持續
來自高盛的策略師們今日表示，希望2023年股市表現更好的股票投資者可能將大失所望，他們預計目前的美國股市熊市階段尚未結束。高盛策略師Peter Oppenheimer和Sharon Bell等人週一在一份研究報告中寫道:“通常與股市觸底相一致的條件尚未達到。”他們表示，在股市出現持續復甦之前，利率見頂和反映經濟衰退的估值下降是非常必要的。
這些策略師預計，標普500指數2023年將收於約4,000點，僅比上週五收盤時的點位高0.9%，而歐股的基準指數——斯託克600指數(Stoxx Europe 600)明年將收於450點，上漲約4%。在此之前，以Emmanuel Cau爲首的巴克萊銀行策略師對歐洲股指也有者同樣的目標預期，並表示實現這一目標的道路將“異常艱難”。
在他們發表上述預期言論之前，受到美國通脹數據趨於疲軟和中國小幅放鬆新冠疫情限制的消息所推動，全球幾大股指近期出現大幅反彈，一些指數進入技術性牛市水平。10月中旬以來的大幅反彈是在全球市場經歷了動盪的近一年時間之後所發生，今年以來各大央行紛紛大舉加息，以抑制不斷飆升的通脹率，引發了投資者們對經濟衰退的擔憂。
但是，高盛的策略師們表示，這種上漲是不可持續的，因爲在經濟惡化速度加快和盈利增長放緩之前，股市通常不會從谷底徹底反彈。他們表示:“股市的近期走勢很可能呈現出震盪下跌。”
高盛的這一觀點與華爾街知名大空頭——摩根士丹利首席策略師邁克爾·威爾遜(Michael Wilson)的觀點基本一致。威爾遜在近日重申，2023年底美國股市將與當前水平基本持平，並將經歷一段“坎坷之路”，包括明年第一季度的大幅下跌。
威爾遜在週一的一份報告中表示，他認爲標普500指數在明年頭三個月將跌至最低3,000點，較上週五收盤點位下跌24%，然而他的客戶對這一觀點持否定態度。他表示:“尚未定價的是盈利風險，而這最終將成爲推動股價再創新低的負面催化劑。”
與此同時，高盛的策略師預計亞洲股市明年的表現會優於全球股市基準表現，預計MSCI除日本外亞太區的股票指數今年將上漲約11%。來自花旗集團的同行們則更加看好中國的股市表現。
由於目前熊市仍在全面盛行，Oppenheimer和他的策略師團隊建議關注資產負債表強勁、利潤率穩定的基本面優質公司，以及估值風險有限的高價值股、能源和資源類股票。
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