中金公司:明年中國經濟有望回暖 看好新經濟
中金公司研究部首席宏觀分析師張文朗在網上會議中表示,明年中國經濟有望回暖,其中,他看好新經濟發展。他相信,內地的宏觀政策將繼續支持投資與消費復甦,疫情受控及防控措施亦有助經濟復甦,而風險資產的表現亦會較理想。
張文朗提到,明年內地會有兩個不同的疫情情景,如果疫情影響逐步減弱,則內生動能將逐步恢復,財政與準財政政策力度亦會加大。在這個情況下,中金預計內地明年GDP增速大約為5.2%,CPI按年升幅的全年均值約為2.2%,PPI升幅全年均值約0.6%。另一個更理想的情景是疫情影響顯著下降,這時消費者的儲蓄將轉化為需求,內生動能加速復甦,經濟改善將更為顯著,對外貿易中,進口可能改善得比出口多。
張文朗預期,美國及歐洲的經濟下滑,其中,美國的GDP負增長1%,而歐元區則錄負增長逾1%,料海外通脹會有所回落,惟速度不會太快。亞太地區則料處於溫和復甦的狀態,展望明年,他預期即使美歐經濟下行,但內地的競爭力仍會繼續加強,
中金公司研究部策略分析師劉剛預計,明年首季如通脹回到約5%,美聯儲才會停止加息。他相信,美元短期仍然承壓,但會在明年上半年保持強勢。他又指,公司自4月起對美元定價的黃金不太積極,主要是因為美元偏強。對於港股表現,劉剛提到,是次回調是港股歷次回調中持續時間最長的,惟幅度暫未及2008年的金融危機,他推薦消費、地產、互聯網、醫藥等具優質增長的類別。
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