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瑞銀料中國經濟明年反彈 第三季開始全面開放
阿思達克 11-21 14:09
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室亞太區投資總監及宏觀經濟主管胡一帆在記者會上表示,近月美國通脹已有較大改善,預期明年通脹會繼續回落,明年底或下降至約3%,不過由於目前通脹仍在較高水平,估計美聯儲未來兩次議息會議將再各加息50點子,利率料於明年首季見頂於約5%。 她指,高通脹將對明年經濟構成壓力,預期美國明年經濟增長為0.1%,歐元區增長0.2%,英國料會收縮0.4。因經濟增長壓力大,預期明年年中開始環球央行或需開始考慮減息。至於中國經濟增長則料由今年的3.1%,改善至明年的約5%。 胡一帆提到,目前估計中國明年第三季開始會由疫情中全面開放,由於最近的防疫20條可見政府政策開始鬆動,預料明年兩會可能會有重大舉措宣布,下半年或開始全面放鬆國際航班,及不再有小區封鎖等措施,相信消費反彈及基建投資等增加可拉動明年經濟表現回升。另外,她料人民幣兌美元明年3月或低見7.3水平,並於其後逐步回升,明年9月或處7水平,年底進一步升值至6.9水平。 股票市場方面,瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室大中華區股票主管李智穎建議增加防禦性和價值板塊,認為防禦性板塊受經濟走軟影響相對較小,而價值股在高通脹環境下往往表現良好,其中環球必需消費、醫藥及能源等行業股票今年跑贏,預期明年可繼續有良好表現。隨著通脹放緩及經濟增長回暖,周期性股票和成長股可能在明年後期出現更具吸引力的買入機會。 她又稱,雖然亞洲科技股估值已低,但因仍處加息周期,相關股份未具持續反彈條件。不過中長期而言,瑞銀繼續看好5G、自動化和機械人等主題,以及可再生能源營運商、動力電池和材料行業中的部分結構性機會。
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