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經濟衰退不可避免?2/10年期美債收益率倒掛至1982年以來最深水平
uSMART盈立智投 11-18 10:35

兩年期和10年期美國國債收益率曲線的反轉加深至40年來的最大水平。週四美股早間,兩年期和10年期美債的息差擴大至負66個基點,創下1982年以來的最大反轉幅度。

在盤初市場交易中,10年期美債收益率上漲9個基點至3.78%,兩年期美債也上漲9個基點,推動收益率升至4.45%。

從歷史上看,長期的反轉預示着未來的經濟衰退。

德意志銀行分析師Jim  Reid在評論當前形勢時表示,“收益率曲線倒掛自1982年以來首次收於-60個基點以下,當你把它的歷史準確性作爲衰退的領先指標時,這令人擔憂。”

其他收益率曲線也出現了更大的反轉,3年至10年的收益率曲線倒掛層度下降6.6個基點至54.2個基點。甚至連美聯儲青睞的收益率曲線(18個月期和3年期美債收益率)也倒掛了整整一週,昨日收於-15.3個基點,爲2020年3月以來的最低水平。

下圖是從2020年初開始的10年期和兩年期的美債收益率曲線圖表。

image.png

MKM Partners首席經濟學家和市場策略師Michael  Darda表示,“從實際情況來看,這種反轉意味着市場預計增長前景將走弱,因此短期利率在較長一段時間內不會維持在當前水平。”

“時間反轉表明,只要長期曲線出現反轉,增長放緩和美聯儲降息就會隨之而來,無一例外(在所有情況下,除了一個例外,NBER的衰退也會隨之而來)。”

雖然倒曲線可能暗示經濟衰退,但羅素投資公司認爲,美國目前沒有陷入衰退,但很有可能在2024年底之前陷入衰退。

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