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騰訊績前曾挫逾2% 市場料其Q3遊戲業務承壓 廣告業務緩慢恢復
uSMART盈立智投 11-16 14:35

騰訊控股(00700)將於11月16日(今日)收盤後發佈2022第三季度業績,今早股價震盪走低,盤中一度跌超2%。

市場料騰訊控股三季度營收爲1418億元人民幣;調整後淨利潤爲303億元人民幣,同比下降4.6%,2021年第三季Non-IFRS淨利潤爲317.5億元人民幣;調整後每股收益爲3.12元人民幣。

多數機構認爲,“降本增效”有望使得經營利潤情況持續改善;受宏觀經濟影響,消費環境疲軟,騰訊遊戲業務短期內承壓,廣告業務則緩慢恢復,視頻號或伴隨其強大的社交網絡開始釋放迎來增量。

降本增效改善利潤端

中金公司認爲,相比收入,公司利潤改善趨勢更爲確定。首先,增量業務對利潤的彈性更大。其次,降本增效強化了公司的增長模型——公司真正爆發式的業務通常是高效集約的,而與社交網絡找不到契合度的業務才容易拼投入。故降本增效可以顯著減少資源浪費。

招商證券認爲,2022年公司推動降本增效戰略,減少非核心業務投入,增加核心業務資源傾斜,公司在三季度成本及費用上預期還有進一步改善的空間。

用戶付費意願低 遊戲業務短期續承壓

廣發證券認爲,國內是第一個未保法實施的暑期,去年高基數對國內業務增長帶來壓力,同時宏觀疲弱影響了低ARPU付費用戶的消費力。

德邦證券認爲,海外手遊面對行業性逆風,年初海外國家相繼解除疫情管控,“宅經濟”紅利消失但留下高基數,疊加海外通脹擡頭,可選消費受擠壓,故預計存量產品流水有所下滑,但因爲基數漸低,幅度較二季度逐步收窄。

廣告業務復甦緩慢 微信視頻號迎來放量增長

招銀國際認爲,騰訊生態系統潛力仍未被充分發揮,微信視頻號的進展標誌騰訊更進一步發揮微信社交潛力。通過爲用戶提供豐富的社交體驗、內容與實用價值,騰訊將增強其競爭力,並提升商家和內容創作者的ROI,同時不會影響用戶體驗。

浙商證券認爲,視頻號的用戶數據快速增長,騰訊商業化意願強烈,已於三季度開啓信息流廣告變現,收入貢獻將會在後續幾個季度陸續體現,給廣告業務帶來增量貢獻。

華安證券認爲,三季度隨着疫情穩定,廣告主營收、投放意願均有所恢復,廣告業務環比有所修復,三季度作爲電商旺季,廣告主會進一步加大廣告投放力度。

金融科技及雲業務環比恢復

東北證券認爲,支付場景的持續拓展是金融科技業務增長的核心驅動,因此業務的增長仍具空間,但三季度疫情較爲嚴峻,影響範圍較廣,影響支付頻率。

華泰證券認爲,騰訊持續主動縮減虧損的雲項目規模,並針對新的雲項目部署執行嚴格的投資回報(ROI)考覈策略,這可能導致短期收入增速放緩,但仍相信騰訊可以受益於中國企業數字化轉型帶來的長期結構性紅利。

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