《大行報告》瑞銀料內地第四季GDP按年增3.3% 政策支持繼續加碼
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤預計,內地今年第四季GDP按年增長3.3%,明年第一季按年增長2至2.5%,增速仍較為疲弱,但仍然預計明年第二季開始防疫形勢可能明顯好轉,維持對明年全年GDP增長為4.5%左右的預測不變。
汪濤指,內地近期優化防疫政策,以及放鬆房地產政策,預計未來政策支持繼續加碼。她相信,即將於12月召開的中央經濟工作會議會維持寬鬆基調,未來幾個月政策支持有望繼續加碼穩增長,包括對房地產、信貸、財政和基建投資的支持。此外,該行預計政府還會進一步為未來的防疫策略調整做好更多的準備工作。
汪濤指,雖然防疫措施優化調整,但疫情仍在快速上升期,因此如果疫情進一步大幅擴散、病例數激增,認為部分地區依然可能間或進行封控,但或將更具針對性。這將繼續抑制消費和服務業活動。未來幾個月隨著全球需求走弱,出口增速將有所放緩。得益於近期政策放鬆加碼,未來幾個月房地產銷售和新開工可能在低位企穩,之後逐漸反彈。未來兩個季度基建投資可能依然穩健。
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