《大行報告》匯豐研究升招行(03968.HK)評級至「買入」 偏好建行(00939.HK)、中行(03988.HK)及交行(03328.HK)
匯豐研究發表研究報告指出,優質內銀股招行(03968.HK)、郵儲銀行(01658.HK)及平安銀行(000001.SZ)今年以來股價調整,跑輸四大國有銀行。不過,隨著疫情防控措施調整、信貸供應及房地產的動態變化,該行料內銀板塊將輪動。
該行認為,內地零售銀行及財富管理業務的風險回報改善,過去12個月零售貸款和財富管理增長勢頭大幅減弱,意味著市場預期亦重新作出下調。展望未來將有兩個潛在的催化劑,包括進一步貨幣寬鬆政策將刺激投資需求,以及「清零」防疫措施放寬有望刺激消費,尤其是在低基數的情況下。此外,於11月出台的新房地產措施,提高房地產相關借款人獲得信貸及再融資能力。
另外,匯豐研究認為內銀之間的分歧正在擴大,可從資產增長、淨息差及資本上反映。該行將招行的評級由「持有」上調至「買入」,H股目標價由42.5元升至45元(見另表),看好其零售銀行業務的長期實力和領先於同行的年化撥備前營業利潤。該行亦偏好建行(00939.HK)、中行(03988.HK)及交行(03328.HK),認為他們的資產質量憂慮下降,預期淨息差表現跑贏,2023財年的股息率料達9.3%至10%屬吸引,均予以「買入」評級。
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