安本:內地監管新措施標誌著內房業轉折點
對於人行和中銀保監支持房地產行業的新措施出台,安本亞洲固定收益投資經理邴竹君表示,出台的十六項措施非常全面,涵蓋開發貸款、抵押貸款、債券融資和確保預售房屋交付的專項貸款。新措施旨在直接解決行業面臨的資金問題,以及上周中國銀行間市場交易商協會(NAFMII)支持民營企業發行2,500億元人民幣債券的消息,標誌著房地產行業的轉折點,但支持可能向仍在償還債務的房地產開發商傾斜,從而在開發商之間造成更多的信貸差異。
邴竹君認為,僅出台的十六項措施不足以使行業擺脫當前的危機。開發商的合同銷售今年以來一直非常疲弱。因此,需要更多的寬鬆政策來幫助行業,例如放寬託管賬戶,以及放寬主要城市的購房政策。
安本亞洲股票投資總監金彪補充,房地產行業繼續疲弱,受到兩個關鍵因素的拖累,包括流動性風險和銷售放緩。雖然看到地方層面的支持性政策愈來愈多,例如刺激需求及提供優質土地等,但中央政府對該行業的政策立場仍然堅定。雖然當局不太可能提供大規模的需求刺激,但預期至少應有助於緩解系統中的流動性壓力,尤其是對於私人房地產開發商而言,因為這是目前該行業的最大風險。如果房地產行業進一步惡化,預計中央政府將提供更多支持,以遏制對更廣泛經濟的蔓延風險。
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