You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
大摩:明年英歐經濟大概率陷入衰退,美國或“僥倖”避免
uSMART盈立智投 11-14 16:22

近日,摩根士丹利發表研報表示,英國和歐元區經濟很可能在明年陷入衰退,但由於就業市場的韌性,美國可能會“僥倖”避免。

該行表示,“風險傾向於下行”,預計明年全球經濟將增長2.2%,低於國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最新預期2.7%。

大摩預測,明年發達經濟體之間將出現“陷入或接近衰退”的明顯分化,而新興經濟體將“溫和復甦”,但該行表示,全球經濟的總體復甦可能仍難以實現。據預測,2023年中國經濟將增長5%,超過新興市場的平均預期增長3.7%(在國內需求的推動下,預計亞洲經濟體增長率在2023年上半年下降到3.4%,在下半年回升至4.6%),而十國集團發達國家的平均預期增速僅爲0.3%。

另外,今年全球各大央行都提高了利率,以遏制肆虐的通脹。在美國,大摩預測,由於通脹在今年第四季度見頂後仍保持強勁,美聯儲將在2023年維持高利率。而該行預計,到2023年底,美國核心通脹率將降至2.9%,整體通脹率將降至1.9%。

報告稱:“美國經濟將在2023年剛好避免衰退,但由於就業增長顯著放緩,失業率繼續上升,經濟可能並不會那麼容易軟着陸。”該行預計美國明年經濟將增長0.5%。

大摩補充道:“2023年緊縮政策的累積效應將持續到2024年,導致明後兩年經濟非常疲軟。”

而在全球範圍內,該行認爲,通脹也應在本季度見頂,“明年則將出現反通脹的局面”。

資產方面,大摩預計,受初始估值降低的推動,2023年的跨資產回報率(尤其是固定收益領域)將比2022年要好得多。其中,高等級固定收益將跑贏全球股市。

另外,該行認爲,新興市場和日本股市將跑贏大市,美國股市則將落後。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account