國泰君安：“三重底”做實，銀行股翻多
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：國泰君安銀行研究
銀行板塊當前處於政策底、估值底和業績底的“三重底”階段，全面看多銀行板塊：
1.政策底：地產風險和疫情形勢是最近兩年壓制板塊的兩座大山，但目前壓制因素已出現邊際緩解：①房地產支持政策不斷出台，力度持續加大。近期落地了“金融支持房地產16條”，強調了金融系統對房地產的一攬子支持，預計房地產風險將能得到穩妥化解，從而減小銀行的資產質量壓力；②防疫政策動態優化，近期落地了“優化防控20條”，更加強調科學精準，整治層層加碼。預計能夠有效減小疫情對經濟活動的擾動，提振市場對銀行信貸的需求；
2.估值底：銀行板塊2022年初至今跌幅達17%，當前動態估值僅0.45倍PB，創有史以來新低，銀行指數則是2015年以來的低點。個股方面，以招商銀行、寧波銀行為代表的龍頭標的，當前估值均為2015年以來最低。因此，板塊和個股在定價層面都已經非常充分地消化了各項或有利空，包括2023年Q1的貸款重定價；
3.業績底：2022年Q3就是板塊營收增速的底部，2023年Q2將重回景氣度擴張區間：①預計2022年Q4-2023年Q1將是營收增速的企穩階段。Q4在高基數消退和非息收入增速回升的助推下，預計營收增速將邊際回升。但由於2023年Q1存在淨息差重定價壓力，可能使得營收增速出現一定波動，這一影響已經提前在股價中充分反應了；②預計2023年Q2營收增速將開啟趨勢性上行，主要基於基數壓力消退、保持較快擴錶速度和息差降幅收窄三個因素。
投資建議：看多銀行板塊，個股選擇把握兩條邏輯主線：
1.傳統龍頭：寧波銀行、招商銀行、平安銀行。作為板塊龍頭標的，這些銀行的股價此前受宏觀層面的壓制最多，因此最受益於地產和疫情形勢的邊際改善。此外，原本這些銀行都是機構重倉股，微觀交易結構較為擁擠。在經歷股價下調後，交易結構趨於健康。
2.優質小行：蘇州銀行、成都銀行、江蘇銀行、常熟銀行。一方面，這些銀行整體的景氣度繼續處於高位，在區域經濟β和資本補充需要的加持下，業績的確定性和持續性都非常強；另一方面，前期強勢的小銀行都出現了補跌，估值重新回到了極具性價比的位置。
風險提示：經濟超預期下行；政策效果不達預期。
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