《大行報告》摩通料內房民企股短期或強勁反彈 但指仍未解決內房銷售弱的核心問題
摩根大通發表報告,內房股板塊上周股價抽升,主要因內地當局出台對民企債券融資支持措施及放鬆防疫限制,而中國人民銀行和銀保監會聯合發布放寬房地產信貸政策的聯合文件,發布第254號聯合政策文件,在六個領域採取16項措施,以增加對項目交付、開發商融資和保護購房者合法權益的金融支持,該行認為這是一個很好趨勢,但僅此一點仍然很難改變行業遊戲規則,雖然此緩解資金問題,但並沒有解決內房產銷售疲軟的核心問題。
該行預計內房股短期內股價會出現積極的反應,但更可持續的反彈仍將取決於行業銷售復甦的證據。雖然該行仍普遍看好國企內房及物管股中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK),但該行認為非困境內房民企,如龍湖(00960.HK)、碧桂園(02007.HK)、新城發展(01030.HK)、碧桂園服務(06098.HK)及新城悅服務(01755.HK)可能會看到近期股價強勁反彈,因為潛在加大資金支持力度,令市場憧憬或可成為主要受益者。
摩通表示,注意到有報道指內銀累計共有1萬億人民幣支持內地樓市,指1萬億人民幣的資金支持包括開發貸款、抵押貸款和債券,也就是說,並非所有資金都將直接流向開發商,而在前幾個季度,1萬億元人民幣的新融資總額實際上並非罕見。該行認為實施重要,但銀行仍可能優先向國有內房企業、地方政府融資平台(可能被歸類為房地產)和優質民營企業提供貸款。
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