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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調本港今年經濟預測至收縮3.1% 料明年樓價再跌7%
匯豐研究發表研究報告指出,由於美國聯儲局未來幾個月或進一步加息,預期本港經濟可能繼續承壓,在高息環境下投資增長放緩,因此對本港今年經濟預測作出下調,由原預測收縮0.5%,進一步下調至收縮3.1%。但在內地經濟復甦的支持下,料本港經濟將於明年下半年有所反彈。 該行認爲,房地產面臨更大壓力,因長期經濟疲弱或將降低買家的購買力,並可能延遲買樓決定。加上負財富效應以及高息,估計樓市繼續受壓,今年樓價或跌8%,明年再跌7%。至於銀行表現相對具韌性,因貸款與經濟增長相關,降低經濟增長預測可能導致今年下半年至2023年的貸款撥備增加及更高的信貸成本。商業活動減少也可能對貸款需求造成壓力。銀行的股本回報率將於高息環保下改善,而在資產增長放緩的情況下,部分銀行的股息支付能力或有所提高。 此外,該行相信港府將採取措施振興經濟,如《施政報告》中提及的北部都會區等,旨在加強本港的增長和競爭力,可能爲建造業提供機會。同時,放寬旅行限制將有利於航空業,最終令國際商業連接正常化。該行偏好中銀香港(02388.HK)、港交所(00388.HK)、新地(00016.HK)、國泰(00293.HK)及中國建築(03311.HK),目標價及評級如下: 股份?評級?目標價(港元) 港交所(00388.HK)?買入?320元 中銀香港(02388.HK)?買入?34元 新地(00016.HK)?買入?107.6元 國泰(00293.HK)?買入?9.5元 中國建築(03311.HK)?買入?12.4元
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