《大行報告》美銀:人行出台支持民企債融資計劃令人驚喜 料碧桂園、龍湖及旭輝等受惠
內房股今早抽升,碧桂園(02007.HK)股價飆升23.6%報1.78元,雅居樂(03383.HK)彈高10.9%,龍湖(00960.HK)揚12.4%,旭輝(00884.HK)彈高43%。由人民銀行主管的中國銀行間市場交易商協會公布,繼續推進並擴大民營企業債券融資支持工具(第二支箭),支持包括房地產企業在內的民營企業發債融資,預計可支持約2,500億元人民幣民營企業債券融資,後續可視情況進一步擴容。
美銀證券中國房地產行業發表報告表示,對人行今次推出新支持措施感到驚喜,目前尚不清楚有多少配額是給予內地房地產開發商的,但如果分配的全部金額用於房地產企業,2,500億人民幣額度就相當於具前景開發商候選企業的短期債務總額。
該行認為,近期內地房地產行業的反彈,包括一些陷入困境的股票,可能部分反映了這種政策舉措,但人行將直接為債券購買提供資金超出了該行的預期。
美銀證券估計,潛在受惠上述消息的內房開發商包括雅居樂、美的置業(03990.HK)、龍湖、碧桂園、新城發展(01030.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)、金地(600383.SH)、卓越、新希望(000876.SZ)、德信地產、大華集團、仁恆置地。該行指相關上市房企,截至今年上半年的短期債務總額為2,500億人民幣
另一方面,美銀證券為這一政策舉措可能對實質的市場的影響有限,由於購買力有限和內地房價疲軟,購房者持謹慎態度。鑑於以往政策一再令市場失望,該行認為對房地產行業的援助金額宜持「保守」看法。該行認為,真正改變內房股總體環境的是實體樓市銷售復甦,但預計在2023年仍將面臨壓力。(wl/u)
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