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瑞銀汪濤料中國2023年GDP增速反彈至4.5%
阿思達克 11-09 08:47
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤在最新2023-24年中國經濟展望報告中表示,預計中國2023年GDP增速反彈至4.5%,預計人民幣兌美元匯率在2023年初可能觸及7.5,2023/24年底會走強至7.1/6.9左右。 汪濤預計,2023年國內消費復甦將推動實際GDP增速反彈至4.5%。隨着房地產活動企穩,房地產下行對經濟的拖累將明顯減弱,基建投資有所減速但仍將會繼續支撐經濟增長,而製造業投資可能放緩。預計CPI按年增速爲2%,而PPI將進一步下行。2024年,經濟增速將進一步小幅回升至4.8%,接近潛在趨勢增速。
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