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高盛:衰退預期已完全計價,美股正值買入良機
uSMART盈立智投 11-07 11:24

$高盛(GS.US)$財富管理部門首席投資官Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani表示,美國經濟衰退的機率約爲五五開,市場已將這一因素反映在股價和潛在獲利中。美股正值買入時期,因爲股價已經跌了這麼多,不太可能進一步大幅下跌。

Mossavar-Rahmani認爲:“我們的觀點是,經濟衰退的可能性已經有所降低。實際上,股市通常會在盈利觸底前反彈,或6個多月後反彈。”

標普500指數本週下跌3.4%,今年以來累計下跌近21%,此前美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示,他計劃繼續提高利率,以堅定地抗擊通脹。Mossavar-Rahmani稱:"總體而言,股市在經歷如此大幅的下跌後往往會反彈。”

Mossavar-Rahmani對美股的前景仍相對樂觀,她曾於9月表示,預計美國經濟衰退在2023年的機率爲45%至55%,而股市的下跌意味着“當你已經經歷了這樣的下跌時,還不足以做出減持股票的決定”。

標普500指數9月份下跌9.3%,10月份反彈8%。Causeway Capital Management首席執行官Sarah Ketterer表示,很難斷定市場已經觸底,因此投資者在大跌後開始穩定買入是件好事。“我們積累得很早,儘可能多地買入股票,價格也會儘可能低,因此此時的平均入場價格通常非常有吸引力”。

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