《大行報告》瑞信下調新華保險(01336.HK)目標價至14元 評級「中性」
瑞信發表研究報告指,新華保險(01336.HK)首九個月的首年保費(FYP)下跌2.9%,意味着第三季度按年增長1.3%,處於同行區間的低端。銀行保險業務推動了第三季的溫和復甦,料從第四季至今,FYP的趨勢會更好。集團預計於12月中旬推出2023年「開門紅」產品銷售,略晚於去年,似乎是上市同業之中最遲。
報告提到,集團9月稅後淨利潤下降57%,符合早前的盈警,意味着第三季度按年暴跌99.8%,主要是由於投資收益下降。首九個月的總投資收益率下滑2.7個百分點至3.7%。資產淨值按季下降4.3%。退保率穩定在1.5%。核心償付能力比率按季下降4.6個百分點至142%,但仍然強勢。
該行預計,整體代理人數將按季下降約20%至約25.5萬人。然而,表現較好的代理數量應該基本穩定。該行將集團今明兩年的盈測各自下調19%,並將2024財年的盈測下調18%。H股目標價由20元下調至14元,維持評級「中性」。
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