華爾街：現在押注美元見頂還爲時過早
近期，有跡象表明，美聯儲激進的緊縮政策開始對經濟產生更大影響，這加劇了人們對加息步伐放緩的押注，並導致週四美元指數觸及一個月低點。然而，有分析人士認爲，鑑於美國加息週期可能還未接近峯值，現在就看衰美元失去主導地位還爲時過早。這也是摩根大通資產管理公司和Fivestar Asset Management的資金經理們的堅定信念。
繼續看漲美元的人士表示，美聯儲的鷹派立場、對全球經濟衰退的擔憂以及歐洲地緣政治緊張局勢的加劇，只會提振對美元的需求。
摩根大通固定收益國際首席投資官Iain Stealey表示：“目前很難看出有什麼原因會導致美元從現在開始走弱。美聯儲還沒有達到最終利率，美國經濟看起來似乎也比其他一些經濟體更具彈性。”
雖然，週四加拿大央行加息幅度低於預期，再次引發了外界對其他央行轉向鴿派的猜測，這令投資者開始注意美元的走勢。據瞭解，美元連續四個月的上漲已波及全球，許多貨幣跌至多年低點，而發展中國家的進口成本飆升。美元的強勢已促使有關部門介入，包括從日本到智利都進行了幹預，以保護本國貨幣，不過這些措施收效甚微。
並且，美聯儲官員對是否加大緊縮步伐也存在分歧。費城聯儲主席哈克認爲，美聯儲今年可能會將利率提高到“遠高於”4%，而芝加哥聯儲主席埃文斯則表示，過高的利率可能會付出高昂的代價，“而且對於政策的限制性究竟會達到何種程度，仍存在很大的不確定性”。
美元的持續上漲促使三井住友信託銀行旗下的Ayako Sera等人認爲強勢美元可能很快結束。她表示：“美元是否已見頂還需要一段時間才能得到確認，但有跡象已經開始顯現，美元即將見頂。”
但其他人則對這樣的觀點表示謹慎。Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.駐紐約外匯策略主管Win Thin在一份報告中寫道，儘管美元可能在下週的美聯儲政策會議之前盤整，但“美元的基本面背景依然樂觀”。
Fivestar Asset Management的Hideo Shimomura也不認爲美元的漲勢即將結束。
“我認爲美元尚未出現拐點，”Shimomura表示，“在我們對美聯儲加息幅度有更清晰的認識之前，這可能不會到來。”
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